The Lindy effect is a concept that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
- if something has existed 1 year, it will exist another year.
- if something has existed 2 years, it will exist another 2 years.
- if something has existed 50 years, it will exist another 50 years.
So this is exponential growth, right? Some things might seem to exist forever.
Like books. They've existed so long, perhaps they will move from medium, but the concept of a book will not go away any time soon.
Food is another example.
But the technical world is moving like crazy. Things appear and disappear. Which is another example of the Lindy effect.
"Tried and proven"
As a programmer it makes me think. Why am I keep trying all these new awesome looking shiny frameworks when they haven't been tried and proven yet?
I noticed a trend in myself that I've been trying too many of these shiny frameworks the last few years. Like Strapi. I know it's all cool and shiny and attractive and the marketing is quite convincing. On a first try, it all works good. But later when I try to customise, it keeps failing me. I had the same problem with Meteorjs in 2014.
So the question I will ask myself more often:
It's cool, but has it really proven itself?