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Jul 10, 2019 09:19:14

superforecasting

by @swizecteller | 277 words | 🐣 | 116💌

Swizec Teller

Current day streak: 0🐣
Total posts: 116💌
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_scoreFinished Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction this weekend. Great book, would recommend 👌

I started listening on a motorcycle ride and had a hard time with wind noise so the first 2 chapters kind of elude me, but here's what I learned 👇

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Forecasting is the art of predicting what's going to happen. Based on current events, past behavior, statistics, and the gut feeling of the forecaster.

We live in a probabilistic world (as the book manages to prove) so forecasting can never be perfect.

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There are 3 types of forecasting questions:

- the completely unpredictable, follows chaotic math (shape of clouds)

- the completely predictable, if I drop this it will fall (basic physics)

- the interesting questions, very hard but measurably predictable (will NK test a nuke by Dec 3rd)

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To improve forecasting you have to ask questions with definitive answers and timelines.

You also have to measure accuracy 👉 The Brier score. Only with feedback can you improve.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

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No fuzzy language. Use percentages.
"I am 90% likely to finish this feature by Monday, assuming X and Y don't happen. If they happen, likelihood falls to 75%"

Adjust your forecast with new information.

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Much of the book talks about superforecasters and how they beat normal forecasters by an order of magnitude.

- early rough guess

- always updating

- thinking in 65% vs 67%, not 60 vs 70

- consider many many competing perspectives

- but discard irrelevant data

- avoid over and under confidence

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All in all Superforecasting was a great book. Many references back to Thinking Fast and Slow and System1 vs System2 thinking, you should read that too.

Thanks for the recommend @hsribei

Originally published at twitter.com

  • 1

    @swizecteller hmmm... sounds like an interesting chunk of knowledge

    Lucjah avatar Lucjah | Jul 10, 2019 23:56:41
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